Prediction Markets > Outside Work

Augur crowdsale

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zack:
47 minutes since the crowdsale started.
179.65974282 BTC
2686.35487879 ETH
https://sale.augur.net/?locale=en

Looks like people want to invest in prediction markets.

psztorc:
The technology won't work...I tried to warn people, but I guess Augur has to make a return for their investors, and no one wants to do due diligence.

Still, I suppose it will be interesting to see [1] how many people are interested in participating in something like this and [2] how gullible the Bitcoin community is.

zack:
It has been 30 hours and 40 min since it started.
2989.83294846 BTC
513399.10038364 ETH

Anyone want to bet how much time passes until trading fees give the votecoin-holders their original investment back? $1 million is a lot of money.

Since ethereum allows you to make contracts that bet on augur without having to pay the fee, then the fee is like a voluntary tip. The gamblers don't have to pay if they don't want to.
Default settings are a powerful force. It is possible that a majority of traders pay the fee anyway.

psztorc:

--- Quote from: zack on August 18, 2015, 10:46:48 pm ---It has been 30 hours and 40 min since it started.
2989.83294846 BTC
513399.10038364 ETH

Anyone want to bet how much time passes until trading fees give the votecoin-holders their original investment back? $1 million is a lot of money.

--- End quote ---

Part of the problem with crowdsales is that you can sell some to yourself and inflate the "funds received" number. It's a smart idea, and someone who used to work at Augur (but no longer does) expressed an interest doing it during their crowdsale (hey, who knows).

Secondly, I still think that people don't totally understand that they can use the system for free (or that they are paying a 20% markup fee). Likely plenty of people don't care and are just wowed by the project and want to be a part of it.

The sun is setting on the current period (2014-2015), one where a recently-increased Bitcoin exchange rate (and Ethereum, given that it was originally "valued" at >$18 million for 80%) overlapped with the introduction of new projects which might, possibly, replace Bitcoin as Victorious Currency. People have a lot of (somewhat unspendable) cash, but not a lot of time/relevant-expertise.



--- Quote from: zack on August 18, 2015, 10:46:48 pm ---Since ethereum allows you to make contracts that bet on augur without having to pay the fee, then the fee is like a voluntary tip. The gamblers don't have to pay if they don't want to.
Default settings are a powerful force. It is possible that a majority of traders pay the fee anyway.

--- End quote ---

Given "once a parastic contract exists, it's fate will be exactly the same as its host's", the risk-reward for both parasite and host is identical (unlike a bootleg movie where the quality may be lower). I think professional money-seeking traders are likely to consider the fee.

But the greater concern is higher-order stuff: that people will stop making contracts (out of fear that they'll be parasited) or that the VoteCoin marketcap falls on expectation of future parasitism, to a level incommensurate with that required to guarantee honest voting. Fear that the VoteCoin market cap *might* fall might then contribute to a lack of trading, etc.

The Nash Equilibrium can be reached ("found") slowly, but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist. Imagine that contracts exist where the trading fees for Q1 and Q2 each net $10,000 to be divided amongst the Voters. Q3 is coming up...what might a single person decide to try? What is his cost/benefit? What is likely to happen to VoteCoin marketcap? To Voters? To Trading?

ceci:

--- Quote from: psztorc on August 19, 2015, 02:52:48 am ---
--- Quote from: zack on August 18, 2015, 10:46:48 pm ---It has been 30 hours and 40 min since it started.
2989.83294846 BTC
513399.10038364 ETH

Anyone want to bet how much time passes until trading fees give the votecoin-holders their original investment back? $1 million is a lot of money.

--- End quote ---

Part of the problem with crowdsales is that you can sell some to yourself and inflate the "funds received" number. It's a smart idea, and someone who used to work at Augur (but no longer does) expressed an interest doing it during their crowdsale (hey, who knows).

Secondly, I still think that people don't totally understand that they can use the system for free (or that they are paying a 20% markup fee). Likely plenty of people don't care and are just wowed by the project and want to be a part of it.

The sun is setting on the current period (2014-2015), one where a recently-increased Bitcoin exchange rate (and Ethereum, given that it was originally "valued" at >$18 million for 80%) overlapped with the introduction of new projects which might, possibly, replace Bitcoin as Victorious Currency. People have a lot of (somewhat unspendable) cash, but not a lot of time/relevant-expertise.



--- Quote from: zack on August 18, 2015, 10:46:48 pm ---Since ethereum allows you to make contracts that bet on augur without having to pay the fee, then the fee is like a voluntary tip. The gamblers don't have to pay if they don't want to.
Default settings are a powerful force. It is possible that a majority of traders pay the fee anyway.

--- End quote ---

Given "once a parastic contract exists, it's fate will be exactly the same as its host's", the risk-reward for both parasite and host is identical (unlike a bootleg movie where the quality may be lower). I think professional money-seeking traders are likely to consider the fee.

But the greater concern is higher-order stuff: that people will stop making contracts (out of fear that they'll be parasited) or that the VoteCoin marketcap falls on expectation of future parasitism, to a level incommensurate with that required to guarantee honest voting. Fear that the VoteCoin market cap *might* fall might then contribute to a lack of trading, etc.

The Nash Equilibrium can be reached ("found") slowly, but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist. Imagine that contracts exist where the trading fees for Q1 and Q2 each net $10,000 to be divided amongst the Voters. Q3 is coming up...what might a single person decide to try? What is his cost/benefit? What is likely to happen to VoteCoin marketcap? To Voters? To Trading?

--- End quote ---


--- Quote from: psztorc on August 19, 2015, 02:52:48 am ---
--- Quote from: zack on August 18, 2015, 10:46:48 pm ---It has been 30 hours and 40 min since it started.
2989.83294846 BTC
513399.10038364 ETH

Anyone want to bet how much time passes until trading fees give the votecoin-holders their original investment back? $1 million is a lot of money.

--- End quote ---

Part of the problem with crowdsales is that you can sell some to yourself and inflate the "funds received" number. It's a smart idea, and someone who used to work at Augur (but no longer does) expressed an interest doing it during their crowdsale (hey, who knows).

Secondly, I still think that people don't totally understand that they can use the system for free (or that they are paying a 20% markup fee). Likely plenty of people don't care and are just wowed by the project and want to be a part of it.

The sun is setting on the current period (2014-2015), one where a recently-increased Bitcoin exchange rate (and Ethereum, given that it was originally "valued" at >$18 million for 80%) overlapped with the introduction of new projects which might, possibly, replace Bitcoin as Victorious Currency. People have a lot of (somewhat unspendable) cash, but not a lot of time/relevant-expertise.



--- Quote from: zack on August 18, 2015, 10:46:48 pm ---Since ethereum allows you to make contracts that bet on augur without having to pay the fee, then the fee is like a voluntary tip. The gamblers don't have to pay if they don't want to.
Default settings are a powerful force. It is possible that a majority of traders pay the fee anyway.

--- End quote ---

Given "once a parastic contract exists, it's fate will be exactly the same as its host's", the risk-reward for both parasite and host is identical (unlike a bootleg movie where the quality may be lower). I think professional money-seeking traders are likely to consider the fee.

But the greater concern is higher-order stuff: that people will stop making contracts (out of fear that they'll be parasited) or that the VoteCoin marketcap falls on expectation of future parasitism, to a level incommensurate with that required to guarantee honest voting. Fear that the VoteCoin market cap *might* fall might then contribute to a lack of trading, etc.

The Nash Equilibrium can be reached ("found") slowly, but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist. Imagine that contracts exist where the trading fees for Q1 and Q2 each net $10,000 to be divided amongst the Voters. Q3 is coming up...what might a single person decide to try? What is his cost/benefit? What is likely to happen to VoteCoin marketcap? To Voters? To Trading?

--- End quote ---

Huh?  I believe the bitcoins are multi-sig and time locked through bitgo. And why would they do that?  It would put off buyers because they get less Reputation % out of a bigger pool, thus limiting the funds they receive overall.

I'm not sure I buy into the arguements you present against augur.  Parasitic contracts can and will be done on truthcoin as well.  What's keeping someone from creating a truthcoin sidechain to bitcoin and doing the same, offering lower fees, better UXUI interface, and better funnels into the system?  Its a weakness relevant to both projects.

I do feel being built on Ethereum offers greater vulnerabilites.  But I'm not sure what they are.  I don't know exzactly how Ethereum works.  So I can't comment on the viability of such a project being down on Ethereum.  What do you think are possible technical attacks to Ethereum or Augur that could harm each systems?

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