Author Topic: Prediction markets to mitigate the "spiral of silence"?  (Read 6537 times)

keystrike

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 21
    • View Profile
Prediction markets to mitigate the "spiral of silence"?
« on: November 07, 2014, 11:13:17 am »
In sociology there is the concept of the spiral of silence which is the "process by which one opinion becomes dominant as those who perceive their opinion to be in the minority do not speak up because society threatens individuals with fear of isolation. The assessment of one's social environment may not always correlate with reality." (Ref: Wikipedia)

I believe prediction markets could reward those who speak out. They could counteract the effects of the media which speaks a single message. They can reward people who fear isolation.

e.g. Will a CEO of a Fortune 500 company announce he is gay by Dec. 31, 2013?
Will an NSA whistleblower come forward by Dec 31, 2012?

Social revolutions could be sped up this way.

Thoughts?

psztorc

  • Administrator
  • Sr. Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 464
    • View Profile
Re: Prediction markets to mitigate the "spiral of silence"?
« Reply #1 on: November 07, 2014, 02:47:12 pm »
Yes, you are correct. The underlying concept is that people 'talk' for two reasons: to convey their model of reality (facts/knowledge), but more-importantly to convey information about loyalties (I support X person/group, I think Y group is weak and we can attack them, how does 'our group' feel about Idea Z?).

With prediction markets, you are only rewarded for your accuracy, so this problem is solved.

You might enjoy this short essay I wrote, about the related concept of common knowledge (which is related to pluralistic ignorance and spiral of slience): http://forum.truthcoin.info/index.php/topic,119.0.html
Nullius In Verba

keystrike

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 21
    • View Profile
Re: Prediction markets to mitigate the "spiral of silence"?
« Reply #2 on: November 08, 2014, 10:25:09 am »
Quote
Normally, when you learn something, you can't easily share what you learned. You can only share what you say you learned. There's a big difference.

Subtle point there. Prediction markets will let people put their money where their mouth is and bring an end to all of the signaling which normally goes on during human communication.

I've done some reading on common knowledge over the last year when thinking about problems like this. Anything you would recommend? I had not come across the term pluralistic ignorance however.

zack

  • Global Moderator
  • Sr. Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 384
    • View Profile
Re: Prediction markets to mitigate the "spiral of silence"?
« Reply #3 on: November 08, 2014, 06:04:50 pm »
http://www.overcomingbias.com/ Robin Hanson invented the LMSR prediction market part. Maybe his blog has what you are looking for.

keystrike

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 21
    • View Profile
Re: Prediction markets to mitigate the "spiral of silence"?
« Reply #4 on: November 09, 2014, 02:25:09 am »
Thanks! I should read his blog more frequently as I've only really been through a few posts. I met Robin Hanson a few months ago when he was speaking at FHI (the talk was on the economics of ems which are future brain emulations as he is coming out with a book on this topic soon). I should have asked him about Truthcoin but I wasn't aware of it at the time. Has anyone gotten to speak to him about it?

psztorc

  • Administrator
  • Sr. Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 464
    • View Profile
Re: Prediction markets to mitigate the "spiral of silence"?
« Reply #5 on: November 09, 2014, 06:16:03 pm »
I've done some reading on common knowledge over the last year when thinking about problems like this. Anything you would recommend?

The obvious advice would be to Wikipedia binge from Market for Lemons, but actually I'm feeling Socratic (who, of course, argued that reading the ideas of others produced only a dangerous unawareness of one's ignorance, and that critically-examined personal experiences were a much better direction), so why don't you just watch The Negotiator, one of my favorite films.

Or, you could watch politicians exploit (or be destroyed by) the difference between common, mutual, and private knowledge on a question by question basis. I found this 'historical' example by clicking through youtube for fewer than 60 seconds.

It is much more fun to "experience" it, I think.
Nullius In Verba

zack

  • Global Moderator
  • Sr. Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 384
    • View Profile
Re: Prediction markets to mitigate the "spiral of silence"?
« Reply #6 on: November 10, 2014, 05:59:00 am »
I got to talk with Robin Hanson with video-chat. He thinks truthcoin is a good idea.

keystrike

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 21
    • View Profile
Re: Prediction markets to mitigate the "spiral of silence"?
« Reply #7 on: November 10, 2014, 05:30:00 pm »
I got to talk with Robin Hanson with video-chat. He thinks truthcoin is a good idea.

Cool! What were his thoughts?

keystrike

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 21
    • View Profile
Re: Prediction markets to mitigate the "spiral of silence"?
« Reply #8 on: November 11, 2014, 10:19:28 am »
I've done some reading on common knowledge over the last year when thinking about problems like this. Anything you would recommend?

The obvious advice would be to Wikipedia binge from Market for Lemons, but actually I'm feeling Socratic (who, of course, argued that reading the ideas of others produced only a dangerous unawareness of one's ignorance, and that critically-examined personal experiences were a much better direction), so why don't you just watch The Negotiator, one of my favorite films.

Or, you could watch politicians exploit (or be destroyed by) the difference between common, mutual, and private knowledge on a question by question basis. I found this 'historical' example by clicking through youtube for fewer than 60 seconds.

It is much more fun to "experience" it, I think.

Cool - I'm currently in Mumbai on a metered connection so I can't torrent a movie unfortunately. But yea I get the gist of it as I have noticed this type of stuff my whole life. :) I have been trying to think of a solution to the problem and finally it seems as though prediction markets as the best idea. Looking forward to playing with the current python proof of concept.

psztorc

  • Administrator
  • Sr. Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 464
    • View Profile
Nullius In Verba

psztorc

  • Administrator
  • Sr. Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 464
    • View Profile
Re: Prediction markets to mitigate the "spiral of silence"?
« Reply #10 on: April 15, 2015, 03:17:32 am »
Some logic puzzle is going viral...it is based on common vs mutual information.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-32297367
Nullius In Verba

zack

  • Global Moderator
  • Sr. Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 384
    • View Profile