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Topics - psztorc

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General / Forum Locked for New Users
« on: August 17, 2016, 02:33:34 pm »
Forum-use has greatly declined, relative to communication by Telegram, e-mail, GitHub, and Slack.

Instead, new users are encouraged to get themselves invited to:

Or find me on Telegram, email, Github.

Off Topic / Jefferson Quote
« on: July 08, 2016, 05:42:17 am »
“Whenever the people are well informed, they can be trusted with their own government.”
-Thomas Jefferson

(re: futarchy?)

Advanced / Novel Bearer Assets
« on: April 27, 2016, 05:22:02 pm »
Over two years ago, Dr. Shiller at Yale wrote a mostly-wrong NYTimes piece about Bitcoin.

( It is 'mostly-wrong' because the central premise "it doesn’t really solve any sensible economic problem" doesn't square with the empirical evidence. )

However, he does bring up some "quirky" ideas, for potential Event Derivative assets:


 * ...since 1967 in Chile, an inflation-indexed unit of account called the unidad de fomento (U.F.), meaning unit of development, has been widely used. ...  In this way, it is natural and easy to set inflation-indexed prices, and Chile is much more effectively inflation-indexed than other countries are.

... Consider rents. Increases may seem unfair to tenants, yet they may be needed to offset inflation. In Chile, a landlord can easily set the monthly rent for the tenant in U.F.s and then never have to change it, reducing the potential for errors, delays and misunderstandings. The name “U.F.” reframes people’s thinking so that keeping real economic values stable is natural and easy.

* would just check off a box indicating whether your payment was in dollars or pesos or euros — or baskets. If you check “baskets,” the computer would calculate the amount of local currency the recipient would need to buy that basket at that time, and it would transmit it, too.

* A third improvement would be to move beyond just one new unit of account to a whole system of them, so that we could have baskets for different purposes. There should be senior baskets representing items consumed by older people in one day in a given country, as well as subsistence baskets representing the consumption of the poor. There should also be a day-wage unit of account representing a day’s work by an average unskilled wage earner.

And there could be a “trills” unit — a concept that Mark Kamstra of York University and I have been advocating — that represents one trillionth of a country’s most recently estimated annual G.D.P. There should also be a unit that grows or retreats with per-capita daily consumption. This could be used for pension and Social Security payments as a form of intergenerational risk-sharing: The idea is that payments to older people would rise and fall with overall consumption. With many kinds of baskets, it will be easier to set prices and make contracts that are sensible for the long term.

The great irony is that all of these are possible with Hivemind, which is itself only possible because of Bitcoin. "it doesn’t really solve any sensible economic problem", indeed!

Design / Incentives / Game Theory / Hivemind Lightning Network Spec
« on: March 05, 2016, 12:20:51 am »
I put this here:

It has many advantages...instant trades (instant settlement), very very low transaction fees, no miner censorship of trades, no miner front-running.

Check it out!

General / New Theme
« on: February 05, 2016, 02:18:41 am »
I felt that this theme had the Black / Orange flavor we really needed.

But, it you'd like to change it back, you can do so in your forum settings!

General / Forum Problems
« on: October 30, 2015, 11:03:16 pm »
Hello everyone,

I did a few (seemingly-simple) things at once:
1] Updated the forum to its latest version.
2] Added a new theme ("Thing").
3] Tried to have two domains share one IP (a common practice).

However, clearly I made some mistake, or there is some bug in the newest SMF software, or some buggy interaction, because (as many of you have emailed me to say) strange things have starting to happen.

So, I've reset a bunch of those things, and I encourage you (if you've visited the forum before) to clear your browser's data. Now, is the 'official' URL again, and simply (independently) points to the same IP.

So everything should (?) be back and we can slowly walk forward.

General / Epicenter Bitcoin
« on: September 21, 2015, 05:54:56 pm »
Myself on Epicenter Bitcoin  8)

Off Topic / Hard and Soft Forks - Mike Hearn and then I respond
« on: August 13, 2015, 07:45:23 am »

I have to say I was very shocked at Hearn's point of seems obviously "the wrong way to look at it". (Maybe it's me).

General / Interview - Mark Edge from Free Talk Live
« on: July 17, 2015, 02:04:17 am »
Corresponded with Mark Edge today...he wanted to one one of his fast podcasts interviews on the spot.

I haven't listened to it yet, I definitely rambled a little. Still, short and to the point.

Advanced / The Blocksize Debate
« on: July 14, 2015, 07:43:46 pm »
My thoughts on prediction markets, and decentralized Bitcoin governance:

(Please try to keep comments in one place [ie, over there]).

Basics / More Interesting Fairlay Markets
« on: June 29, 2015, 11:05:14 pm »

Markets are still young, of course...spread the word!

General / Secret's Out
« on: June 23, 2015, 03:54:54 pm »
It was nice to stay under the radar but look's like the attention is going to start rolling in.

Off Topic / Elon Musk on complicated ideas
« on: June 23, 2015, 03:52:33 pm »

I really enjoyed hearing this. Truthcoin is very frequently explained as "SVD". Which is really one of the least important, most modular and replaceable pieces of Truthcoin. Nowhere near the most important.

Here's my list of some of the other pieces which just happened to "luckily" fall together:

2] The second coin-type, which allowed people to "buy into" something, and allowed the protocol to take something away from lazy-laborers or malicious-laborers (making cheap talk expensive, making laziness expensive). It's function as equity counters the previously-uncounterable "exit scam" incentive.
3] The boiling-down of our definition of "true" to a definition that is actually useful (what most of a group of people will believe in the future, adjusting for inconsistency).
4] The concept that three things were conceptually (and literally) the same number: reputation-coins/equity in the laboring corporation, influence in the laboring corporation, and weights in the weighted-covariance of the Vote Matrix.
5] The insight from mechanism design that certain groups of features (incentive compatibility, revenue neutrality, individual rationality) are -mathematically- mutually exclusive, and one must break, and that the fact that real world investors payed trading/brokerage/SEC fees implied that RN was the one feature to force to break, and it should be broken in Truthcoin the same way it is broken in the real world: by overcharging traders by a consistent multiple.
6] That fact "the Decision/Market Author always has complete control over the clarity of the question" implied that the Authors would have to be cut into the mechanism's revenues. To offset this influx of cash, Authors would need to -upfront- discharge (pay) a fixed amount of cash.
7] Some basics of finance, for example that the system would be completely unhindered by "slow" check-ins (ie, by the fact that a DJIA market would operate perfectly, even if it "only" checked-in with reality a "mere" four times a year [or less]). This implied that "Decisions" could indeed all be resolved at the same time...implying larger, rarer, "vote matrices" (a matrix which, finally, could be reinterpreted as a dataset on which to use SVD / multivariate methods).
8] That the reporting system, which ordinarily would not scale at all (everyone reports on everything?!), could in fact be intelligently managed (fee-limited quantity of Decision-slots, Branching with a "harmless fork" of the VTC) to scale in something approaching viral biology.

Basics / Ethereum Hypocrisy
« on: June 16, 2015, 03:16:25 pm »
Today, a perfect example of why, despite my extreme skepticism of the decentralization movement, I felt that Truthcoin did guard enough value (both [1] literally, as InTrade was a pseudo-bank / value-custodian, and [2] abstractly as info-sources have propaganda-value) to be worth putting on a blockchain. Ethereum users, frustrated by literally years of broken promises, have decided to get a second opinion on Ethereum's release date, and have turned to prediction market service Fairlay.

Only to have the resulting information derided in the most ludicrous way:

Obvious ad is obvious, but at least you're honest with your username, /u/sockpupet , with a whole 3 post to your name.

Downvoted for now but in the future we're going to have rules similar Consider the next couple weeks a 'socialization' period :)

From Stephan Tual, sporting the official ETHDEV flair and everything.

We could stop and laugh at this gentlemen's cluelessness for several paragraphs, but what I find most interesting is that, immediately most of the other subreddit members correctly identify this comment as ridiculous. As is so often the case, those in charge just can't believe that someone-who-isn't-them could have more reliable information, but other stakeholders can easily believe that. Even the wise and the well-meaning (perhaps, especially) fall victim to cognitive dissonance..."no need to ask the PMs for help, after all I am an honest man (unlike those other people)".

This is why PMs must be immortal: Even Ethereum, the tech-idealist capital of the year 2014, obviously hasn't introduced internal prediction markets to help them forecast important project management details like release dates. Now we see that, even when lightly imposed on them from afar, PMs are actively resisted by moderators of the subreddit (a competing info source) to the point of censorship!

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